Iran regime refocusing on nuclear weapons goal

The Iranian regime appears to be trapped between two choices: Having the US sanctions against its political establishment and senior government officials lifted or pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
The economy of the Islamic Republic has spiraled into recession, putting significant pressure on the population. Inflation has greatly lowered ordinary people’s purchasing power. It is estimated that the real inflation rate in Iran is hovering at about 70 percent. The state-controlled newspaper Jahan-e Sanat last week reported: “A study of changes in the consumer price index over the years and the recording of inflation rates above 30 percent tells us that households in the country lose an average of 20 percent of their purchasing power every year. The latest estimates from the Statistics Center show that the average inflation rate at the end of June reached 43 percent.” It added: “Ehsan Soltani is one of the experts who believe that the real inflation rate in June was 71 percent, and this rate has been calculated by realizing the announced statistics and adapting it to the market realities.”
In addition, the ruling mullahs are facing one of the worst budget deficits in their four-decade history of being in power. Tehran was last year running a $200 million weekly budget deficit. Over the last three years, the value of Iran’s national currency, the rial, has dropped to historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled about 35,000 rials in November 2018, now buys nearly 250,000. Sima, who works as a clerk for Iran’s Bank Pasargad, stated: “Salaries have remained the same in the last few years while prices of basic necessities such as food, transportation, rent and medicine have more than doubled.”
Iran’s militia groups are also receiving less funding. This shortfall may be why, for the first time in more than three decades, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2019 made a public statement asking people to donate money to his group. He said: “The sanctions and terror lists are a form of warfare against the resistance and we must deal with them as such. I announce today that we are in need of the support of our popular base. It is the responsibility of the Lebanese resistance, its popular base, its milieu (to battle these measures).”

Obtaining nuclear weapons may have become more important due to recent political changes in the country.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

As a result, the Iranian regime undoubtedly wants the sanctions lifted. But why has it not yet taken the first step toward rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, which would see the sanctions removed? Why have the negotiations in Geneva dragged on for six rounds of talks without result? The answer could lie in the idea that the regime might have changed its political calculations and priorities because pursuing its nuclear ambitions has become more important than improving the nation’s economy and people’s living standards, as is the case with Iran’s ally, North Korea.
The regime has been increasing its violations of the nuclear deal, even during the Geneva talks. It has now begun the process of producing enriched uranium metal. UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency last week warned: “Today, Iran informed the Agency that UO2 (uranium oxide) enriched up to 20 percent U-235 would be shipped to the R&D laboratory at the Fuel Fabrication Plant in Esfahan, where it would be converted to UF4 (uranium tetrafluoride) and then to uranium metal enriched to 20 percent U-235, before using it to manufacture the fuel.”
While the Iranian leaders claim that the country’s nuclear program is designed for civilian purposes, such as developing fuel for research reactors, the production of enriched uranium metal is a crucial step toward acquiring nuclear weapons. A joint statement issued by the UK, France and Germany acknowledged the fact that the Iranian regime “has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production, which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”
Tehran’s nuclear file is filled with clandestine nuclear sites and activities, suggesting that the theocratic establishment has long wanted to acquire nuclear weapons. While the regime prioritized its economy in 2015 by signing the JCPOA and agreeing to curb its nuclear program, obtaining nuclear weapons may have become more important due to recent political changes in the country.
The regime is aware that it is facing significant opposition. The nationwide protests in the winter of 2017-2018 and in November 2019 indicate the people’s discontent with the Islamic Republic, as well as their desire for change. Chants such as “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the Islamic Republic” have become the norm during protests. A revolution seems to be simmering under the surface.
If another uprising erupts and foreign powers interfere, the regime could lose its grip on power. But if the regime were to acquire nuclear weapons like North Korea, it would ensure its stability because they would act as a major deterrent against foreign interference. It would also empower the regime, impose fear in Iranian society and make it easier for the regime to suppress dissent and assert its hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East.
In a nutshell, it seems that the focus of the Iranian regime is now on becoming a nuclear state rather than on having sanctions lifted. Acquiring nuclear weapons would be a powerful deterrent that would ensure the survival of the ruling clerics.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.

Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh